NOAA Cancels Scientifically Dubious Project

Protect the Public’s Trust complaint sparked Commerce Department scientific integrity investigation of the “Billions Project.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) took a major step toward restoring scientific integrity in the federal government yesterday, announcing an end to its scientifically dubious “Billions Project.”

The “Billions Project” was a NOAA dataset that ostensibly tracked natural disasters in the U.S. causing at least $1 billion in damages since 1980. Despite obvious defects in the data and analysis, in previous administrations the Billions Project was frequently cited in official reports as a “climate change indicator” and used as evidence that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. In April 2024 Protect the Public’s Trust (PPT) filed a scientific integrity complaint with the Commerce Department, of which NOAA is a component agency, regarding the Billions Project. As PPT stated when filing the complaint,

NOAA’s Billions Project numbers are a tool for policymakers to enact legislation and regulations that can significantly affect our economy and society. But if the public is to take its numbers seriously, NOAA must overhaul the Project to achieve even a modicum of transparency and scientific integrity.

NOAA informed PPT in September 2024 that its “Scientific Integrity Office is moving forward with an investigation into the allegation you submitted.” The agency announced yesterday that, although previous data would still be available, it would “no longer be updating” the Billions Project, essentially shutting it down.

“Yesterday’s announcement marks a fitting conclusion to the flawed Billions Project,” said Michael Chamberlain, director of PPT. “The Project was an affront to the principles of scientific integrity that we should expect from our federal government. It suffered from a lack of transparency, rigor, and quality, both in its collection and analysis. Yet that did not stop others from using it to justify advancing policy agendas that impacted the American public in nearly every aspect of their lives.”

###